Assembling the ‘perfect’ bracket for March Madness is tougher than people think. The chances of creating the correct bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 — 9.2 quintillion. That is, if you know little to nothing about basketball. If someone is more knowledgeable about basketball, their odds are about 1 in 120.2 billion. 

In 2019, Gregg Nigl became the first person to have the closest picks for a verified bracket that predicted every game through the Sweet 16 correctly. Luke Yoder, who has played basketball for years, states that he “has never done better than 50 correct picks”. 

The Elite 8 round continued from March 29-30, Gonzaga University, University of Southern California, Michigan University, University of Los Angeles, Baylor University, Arkansas University, Oregon State University, and Houston University were the remaining teams. In the Final 4, which is on April 3, Houston University is playing Baylor University and UCLA is playing Gonzaga. The Championship Game is on April 5. Richard Loughran, who knows about basketball but does not follow college basketball closely, states “I think Gonzaga is going to win the championship because they are underrated and have a stellar offense”.

These brackets are not measured by who watches the team’s closest or who has played basketball longest, but rather by the individual guessing which team may win based on knowledge and luck. Luke Yoder, basketball player and avid watcher has never done better than 50 correct picks and has an overall 70% accuracy with his brackets. He says, “there aren’t really any tips to setting up a bracket, just knowing the teams and players is key. Even then, a really good team could have one bad game and surprise everyone”.  Richard Loughran knows little about college basketball, but does know the sport well and researches the teams, players, and their stats. He has found that top experts can give a good insight into predicting who’s going to win and who’s going to be upset. “Most of my brackets are not close; a fair amount of my round one picks being correct”, says Richard. Both interviewees think Gonzaga and Baylor could be in the championship game. Richard says it’s important to, “never get cute and pick the better seed because underdogs can and will pull through at times”. Whether you are an expert at creating a bracket or just do it for fun, who do you think is going to win this year?